When Trust Fails, Fear Takes Over

A crisis spreads when people stop believing anyone can protect them. Fear then does what bullets can’t… it keeps children at home, empties markets, and makes every rumour feel true, as public trust is part of security. When trust weakens, armed groups take advantage of an opportunity to intimidate and recruit.

Fear doesn’t need to be constant in order to be effective; one attack on a bus route can empty that road for weeks; one abduction near a school can keep hundreds of students at home, and armed groups know this all too well. They rarely need full control—only enough presence to make risk feel unpredictable. Fear becomes cheap power, and civilians have to live with its impact each and every day.

Trust usually fades before institutions collapse. It weakens when a teacher isn’t paid, a clinic shuts, or a police station stops answering calls. People judge authority by what it does on an ordinary morning. When officials cannot travel safely, residents turn to whoever can act quickly—even if that person is violent.

Schools and roads are essential for daily life. Once they shut or become dangerous, public life starts to decline. Young people out of class are easier to recruit. Unsafe travel keeps pregnant women from medical services, farmers from markets, and workers from their jobs, and if a town still stands, it is soon abandoned.

This is how armed groups grow. If officials cannot enforce laws or repair damage, another power fills the gap—taxing traders, issuing passes, and deciding who moves where. By 2026, over 204 million people are living under armed control, with some 284,000 missing—up 70% in a year! Fear dictates travel and; the power of local authorities has all but disappeared.

Recovery is harder than rebuilding walls. A road can be fixed, but people won’t use it if extortion remains. A school can reopen, but parents won’t send children back if armed men still control the route. Rebuilding trust requires reliable security, fair administration, and visible justice.

Global military spending reached $2.7 trillion in 2024, while humanitarian appeals fell short at $50 billion. More money goes into fighting than protecting the people they were elected to protect, and fail to restore normal life. A frightened public is easy to manipulate, and a suspicious public is hard to organise. That combination gives armed groups an opportunity to recruit—even without much support.