Global conflict outlook

Across the world, conflict remains severe in early 2026, with projections pointing to more than 28,000 deaths in Ukraine and thousands more in Sudan and the Israel/Palestine conflict this year. The Russia-Ukraine war is still the deadliest, and Russian casualties, both killed and wounded, had passed about 1.2 million by early 2026.

Projected 2026 conflict deaths in key regions

Ukraine, about 28,300 deaths projected
Israel/Palestine, about 7,700 deaths projected
Sudan, more than 4,300 deaths projected
Pakistan, about 2,000 deaths projected
Nigeria, about 1,900 deaths projected
Ethiopia, about 1,800 deaths projected
Somalia, about 1,700 deaths projected
Syria, about 1,400 deaths projected
Yemen, about 1,300 deaths projected
Burkina Faso, about 1,200 deaths projected

Key conflict updates for 2026

Russia-Ukraine remains extremely costly, even though the 2026 projection is lower than 2025. By early 2026, Russian casualties had reached around 1.2 million, while Ukrainian military casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, are estimated at 500,000 to 600,000.

Civilian harm in Ukraine also remains high. In the first quarter of 2026, civilian casualties were 20% higher than in the first quarter of 2025.

Sudan is getting worse, and the 2026 death forecast doubled in the final months of 2025, according to a PRIO research professor. (“Prio” is an informal abbreviation for “priority”, referring to the importance, urgency, or ranking of a task).

In Israel/Palestine, projected deaths are lower than the 14,000 recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program between January and October 2025, partly because of the October 2025 ceasefire. Violence also still remains high in Myanmar, Nigeria and Yemen, while gang violence continues to affect Mexico.

Why violence stays high in Myanmar, Nigeria, Yemen and Mexico

Violence in these places is still part of daily life. It affects school runs, market trips and travel, and civilians keep paying the highest price.

Myanmar

Fighting now reaches all 14 states and regions. The military junta and armed groups are still locked in war, and civilians are often trapped in the middle. Airstrikes have hit markets, schools and preschool areas. Roads, clinics and schools have also been damaged, while drug production has grown alongside the conflict.

Nigeria

Nigeria faces several kinds of insecurity at once. Insurgents attack in the north-east, while communal violence and criminal attacks break out elsewhere. That makes the state uneven in its reach. Farmers stay off their land, traders avoid roads and families move when violence rises.

Yemen

Yemen’s war has shattered authority and public services. Even when one front calms, the wider problem stays, because armed groups still operate and the state cannot fully protect people. Aid is hard to deliver, travel is dangerous and damaged services keep families close to hunger or displacement.

Mexico

Mexico does not have a civil war, but some cartels use war-like tactics. They use drones, explosives, road blockades and arson to control territory and scare communities. Recent attacks on miners and security forces show how organised this violence is. It also spreads into border zones, roads, farms and local businesses.

Why it lasts

These crises continue because fear and weak public trust feed each other. When schools close, roads are unsafe and officials cannot act, armed groups gain more space. The pattern is different in each country, but the result is the same. Civilians lose their freedom, their homes, family members and their lives. Public life diminishes and recovery stalls.